Dibanding laporan 15 Agu 2026. Klik tab di atas untuk lompat ke tabel detail.
Tukarpulsa Smartfren anjlok -5 poin (81%→76%) — satu-satunya pergerakan ≥3 poin hari ini, sudah diverifikasi 2× reload. Tukarpulsa kehilangan status pemenang tunggal untuk pertama kalinya sejak monitoring berjalan; pemenang Smartfren sekarang Tetrapulsa & Sukma Convert (tie 78%).
Ragil Convert naik +1 poin di 4 dari 6 provider (Telkomsel, Axis, XL, Three) di kedua tier — kenaikan serentak yang belum pernah terjadi. Indosat & Smartfren tetap.
Margin membaik +1 poin di 4 provider tanpa menyentuh rate customer — murni efek kenaikan upstream. Provider margin tipis (≤1%) turun dari 4 kemarin jadi 2 hari ini.
% dari nilai pulsa. Hijau = rate tertinggi per baris (antar kompetitor), merah = terendah. Pulsafa ditampilkan sebagai pembanding, bukan bagian dari perhitungan tertinggi/terendah.
| Provider | Tetrapulsa | byPulsa | Viapulsa | Tukarpulsa | Sukma Convert | Novapulsa | Pulsafa | Rate Tertinggi | Pemenang |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telkomsel | 79% | 79% | 80% | 84% | 81% | 78% | 83% | 84% | Tukarpulsa |
| XL / Axis | 84% | 85% | 87% | 89% | 87% | 82% | 87% | 89% | Tukarpulsa |
| Indosat | 84% | 84% | 84% | 84% | 83% | 80% | 85% | 84% | 4-way tie ¹ |
| Tri / Three | 80% | 79% | 80% | 82% | 80% | 78% | 82% | 82% | Tukarpulsa |
| Smartfren | 78% | 76% | 75% | 76% | 78% | — | 81% | 78% | Tetrapulsa, Sukma ² |
Rate yang diterima Pulsafa saat menjual balik pulsa yang terkumpul dari customer. Basis cost-of-fund untuk simulasi margin.
| Provider | Tier Rp25rb–499rb | Tier Rp500rb–1jt | vs kemarin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telkomsel | 87% | 88% | ▲ +1 |
| Indosat | 88% | 89% | = tetap |
| Axis | 93% | 94% | ▲ +1 |
| XL | 93% | 94% | ▲ +1 |
| Three | 86% | 87% | ▲ +1 |
| Smartfren | 83% | 84% | = tetap |
Gap = Rate Upstream (tier Rp500rb–1jt) − Rate Tertinggi Kompetitor. Aturan saran: gap ≥ 2 poin → rate tertinggi kompetitor +1; gap < 2 → samakan; guard: saran tidak boleh ≥ rate upstream. Gap melebar di 4/6 provider hari ini.
| Provider | Tertinggi Kompetitor | Upstream | Gap | Gap Kemarin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telkomsel | 84% | 88% | 4 | 3 |
| Indosat | 84% | 89% | 5 | 4 |
| Axis | 89% | 94% | 5 | 5 |
| XL | 89% | 94% | 5 | 5 |
| Tri / Three | 82% | 87% | 5 | 4 |
| Smartfren | 78% | 84% | 6 | 3 |
| Provider | Rate Pulsafa | Tertinggi Kompetitor | Saran Rate | Aturan | Delta | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telkomsel | 83% | 84% | 85% | +1 | +2 | perlu naik |
| Indosat | 85% | 84% | 85% | +1 | 0 | sudah unggul |
| Axis | 87% | 89% | 90% | +1 | +3 | perlu naik |
| XL | 87% | 89% | 90% | +1 | +3 | perlu naik |
| Tri / Three | 82% | 82% | 83% | +1 | +1 | perlu naik |
| Smartfren | 81% | 78% | 81% ³ | override | 0 | pertahankan |
Tabel 4: gap = rate upstream (tier2) − saran rate (= margin kotor kalau saran diterapkan). Smartfren pakai rate override 81%, bukan formula mentah. Simulasi: tier Rp25rb–499rb, overhead operasional asumsi 2% — belum ada angka riil, ditandai eksplisit.
| Provider | Saran Rate | Upstream | Gap (margin) | Gap Kemarin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telkomsel | 85% | 88% | 3 | 2 |
| Indosat | 85% | 89% | 4 | 3 |
| Axis | 90% | 94% | 4 | 4 |
| XL | 90% | 94% | 4 | 4 |
| Tri / Three | 83% | 87% | 4 | 3 |
| Smartfren | 81% ³ | 84% | 3 | 2 |
| Provider | Jual Upstream (t1) | Beli Pulsafa | Margin Sekarang | Kemarin | Δ | Avg Kompetitor | Margin jika match avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telkomsel | 87% | 83% | +2% | +1% | +1 | 80.2% | +4.8% |
| Indosat | 88% | 85% | +1% | +1% | 0 | 83.2% | +2.8% |
| Axis | 93% | 87% | +4% | +3% | +1 | 85.7% | +5.3% |
| XL | 93% | 87% | +4% | +3% | +1 | 85.7% | +5.3% |
| Tri / Three | 86% | 82% | +2% | +1% | +1 | 79.8% | +4.2% |
| Smartfren | 83% | 81% | 0% | 0% | 0 | 76.6%* | +4.4% |
16 Agu 2026 vs 15 Agu 2026. Satu anomali ≥3 poin: Tukarpulsa Smartfren -5. Pergerakan upstream Ragil Convert dicatat terpisah di §03.
| Provider | Tetrapulsa | byPulsa | Viapulsa | Tukarpulsa | Sukma Convert | Novapulsa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telkomsel | 79% = | 79% = | 80% = | 84% = | 81% = | 78% = |
| XL / Axis | 84% = | 85% = | 87% = | 89% ▲ +1 | 87% ▲ +1 | 82% = |
| Indosat | 84% = | 84% = | 84% = | 84% ▼ -1 | 83% = | 80% = |
| Tri / Three | 80% = | 79% = | 80% = | 82% = | 80% = | 78% = |
| Smartfren | 78% = | 76% = | 75% = | 76% ▼ -5 | 78% = | — |
Kenaikan upstream +1 di 4 provider (Telkomsel, Axis, XL, Three) memberi margin ekstra tanpa risiko — rate customer bisa dinaikkan sesuai Tabel 3 sambil margin tetap membaik.
Anomali Tukarpulsa Smartfren -5 poin perlu dipantau 1-2 hari ke depan — bisa koreksi sesaat, bisa perubahan strategi. Tidak perlu aksi rate Pulsafa sekarang karena posisi Pulsafa sudah unggul jauh.
Jangan ikuti saran formula mentah untuk Smartfren (79%, turun dari 81%) — override ke pertahankan 81%, lihat catatan ³ di §04.
Indosat & Smartfren tetap prioritas review margin tipis (1% dan 0%) — dua hari berturut-turut di kategori ini meski provider lain membaik.
Tidak ada gap margin proyeksi tipis (<2 poin) hari ini — kondisi terbaik sejak monitoring berjalan, berkat kenaikan upstream serentak.
Overhead operasional masih asumsi 2% — belum ada validasi data riil sejak awal monitoring.
Manfaatkan kenaikan upstreamTerapkan saran rate Telkomsel 85%, Axis/XL 90%, Tri/Three 83%. Margin proyeksi naik ke 3-4 poin tanpa risiko kompetitif — ruangnya baru terbuka hari ini.
Jangan turunkan rate SmartfrenFormula mentah menyarankan 79%, tapi Pulsafa sudah unggul 3 poin dari kompetitor tertinggi baru (78%). Pertahankan 81%.
Pantau anomali TukarpulsaSmartfren -5 poin selama 1-2 hari sebelum menyimpulkan tren atau koreksi sesaat. Kalau bertahan, seluruh acuan Smartfren perlu dihitung ulang.
Indosat & Smartfren tetap margin ≤1% — review menyeluruh, dua hari berturut-turut di kategori tipis meski yang lain membaik.
Tidak ada aksi mendesak untuk Axis/XL — margin & gap paling sehat di antara 6 provider, dan justru membaik hari ini.